S28E06: We Found Our Zombies.

We’re at that stage in the game that the merge is peeking around the corner and players are getting nervous. Do we choose to vote someone off that can prove to  be a threat long-term or do we choose to keep our tribe as strong as possible to have numbers once we get to the merge. These are the tribals where people can make decisions that end up being their downfall. Decisions, where players look back on in the end and know, that’s the moment they lost the game. This week was one of those episodes so let’s see how they did.

But first the tribe that escaped tribal’s dance this week: Solana. After last tribal the tables were completely turned, as Cliff was voted out and Lindsey and Woo found themselves at the bottom. Apparently Trish found it necessary to make that clear to Lindsey after they returned from tribal. By doing that Trish didn't show her best side  this week. Previous episodes made clear that Lindsey and Trish didn’t like each other and Trish clearly wanted to rub the fact that Cliff was blindsided in her face. She did try to disguise it by stating that she honorably wanted to explain her actions but she just wanted a reaction out of Lindsey and she got it. An argument between the two followed but it didn’t seem to be as ‘antagonizing’ to warrant what followed. What did follow was Lindsey, who wandered outside of camp, only to be found by Jeff. At first I thought it was LJ who found Lindsey and would try to comfort her to gain a new ally, which would have been a great move in my book. But it wasn’t LJ but Jeff who took a stroll along the beach and bumped into a weepy mess called Lindsey. Their conversation resulted in what must be one of the worst quits in survival history (Btw, doesn’t Jeff love to say: ‘This is a survivor first…’ ^^). Even though Trish did act like somewhat of a !@#&, Lindsey came of as a sore loser that couldn’t deal with that fact that she went from the top of the totem pole to the bottom. What also struck me as odd was that Jeff didn’t really try as hard to convince her to stay as he did in the past (remember Naonka and Kelly from Nicaragua? Equally as bad quitters as Lindsey is as far as I’m concerned). This makes me think  that something happened that we weren’t privileged to see (also no 'day after' vid for lindsey?). Will we ever know what truly happened there? I don’t know but what I do know is that Solana had a rough night not only losing Cliff but also Lindsey. This has two consequences. Number one is for poor little Woo, who is now completely alone. Number two is the evaporation of the Brawn alliance. What started as a seemingly unstoppable force of brawn barreling through the game, ended in an implosion that destroyed the core alliance and scattered the remnants across two tribes.

The ordeal didn’t seem to bother them much as they won the reward challenge the next day. As their reward they were granted a camp raid, where they can steal any equipment or food they want from the other tribe. Solana elected Tony and Woo to execute the raid on their behalf. When both Tony and Woo arrive at the Aparri camp, Tony shows once again that he’s a really good player that can think outside of the box. He decides to not only take their stuff but also play a trick on them. Realizing that Jeremiah is their powerhouse, Tony gives the immunity idol clue, that was included with the camp raid, to Jeremiah to make his tribemates target him and vote him off.  I thought this was a very good move, even though it kinda missed it mark because the clue was for the Beauty HII which Jeremiah recognized. The second reason this move could backfire was when he came back from the camp raid and immediately told his entire tribe what he did. And not only that, he also shared with them the fact that he is a cop. Now it didn’t seem to turn that many heads. Trish brushed it off the table like a fait divers and Jefra was gratefull Tony is on her side. But it turned one head, the most dangerous head of all: LJ. Tony’s move at the camp raid and his confession made LJ wonder what else this cop is capable off. I’m pretty sure Tony is not in LJ’s final three plans and he will get rid of him at some point in the future. So in the end all that Tony’s move did was make him even more untrustworthy. Thus Tony will have to get rid of LJ before LJ gets rid of him if Tony wants to make it the end. Luckily for Tony his tribe wins the immunity challenge and escapes tribal even though he probably lost a potential ally in Sarah after yelling final 5 in the challenge.

So what started as a promising episode for Tony with a clever move at the camp raid ended in some errors on his part that could cost him dearly towards the future. We all know less is more on survivor, the less you tell, the less you can do wrong. Tony made a mistake in telling what he did at the camp raid and the fact he is a cop, which made him the centre of LJ’s radar. Also yelling final 5 at the challenge might have lost him an ally in Sarah.  Is it the narrative towards Tony’s demise? Time will tell.

Let’s continue with the Aparri tribe. Last week I discussed the different scenario’s this interesting new tribe could wind up in and suggested a best course of action. I’m glad to see that prediction practically completely ensued this week. For the Aparrri tribe the episode started at the reward challenge where everyone but especially Alexis was overjoyed that not only Cliff but also Lindsey was out of the  game. This was Alexis second mistake after telling the brains last week that Jefra was her main alliance. Anyways the challenge continues and the Aparri tribe lose and have to indulge a camp raid. In that camp raid as vigorously talked about above, Tony tries to target Jeremiah by giving him a clue to the HII. Now of course Jeremiah recognized the clue as the one from the Beauty tribe and realizes he’s being targeted because of it. Subsequently he tries to convince the others of this but pretty much fails at it, making his position in the game precarious. Alexis grabs this opportunity to further incriminate Jeremiah but in this she makes her second mistake of the episode. She plays to hard, so hard it makes her more suspicious and more of a threat then Jeremiah.

In a following immunity challenge they lose and are sent to tribal to sent the first member of the new Aparri tribe home. Back at camp, Alexis yet again overplays her hand and plays to hard to the point that the choice is between her and Jeremiah. So it seems like the brains are in full control and have Morgan at their side because she has no connection to the brawn and detests her former Beauty tribe. Also Sarah will be very happy with these dynamics. At first she seemed a possible target but after the flip at Solana and the apparent final 5 that has formed there, she escapes being targeted. Essentially, like Morgan , she’s a free agent now and should go with the brains and Morgan if she’s smart. The preview for next week does show that Sarah might not be done severing the cord with her former allies as you might think. This leaves only two options, with option A being Jeremiah. Because of Tony’s action at the camp raid, as far as the other know, Jeremiah has a clue to a HII. Add tot hat his connection to LJ and Jefra and you have two well reasoned arguments to vote him. On the flipside he showed eagerness to turn on his former tribe, he’s strong in challenges and he isn’t the biggest strategy player, which doesn’t make him an immediate threat. In comparison, there's option B, in which Alexis clearly has a stronger tie with her former alliance then Jereimah has. She’s also a bigger strategy player with a smart mind under that pretty package. To top it off, in comparison with Jeremiah she’s not an asset in challenges. At tribal the brains realize all of this and unanimously send Alexis home in tears. 

Even the most coldest of hearts will have felt for Alexis when she literally went home in tears. She’s obviously a superfan of the show and is heartbroken she didn’t make the merge. To her credit she wasn’t passive in the game. She didn’t make big moves but at times she showed she has a knack for the game. In the end she did go down but not without a fight, so she deserves a pat on the back for that. 

Next week it seems an early merge is coming which will pitch both tribes against each other. Smack in the middle appears to be Sarah who’s not sure where her future lies in this game. Sounds like a great episode in a season which, except for episode 2 and 3, is  very entertaining. No 'day after' vid for Alexis, even though I know there is one... Anyways if I find i'll add it next time, see you then!

S28E05: Odd One Out.

It’s tribe swap time! The best seasons in the past have been the seasons that were unpredictable and where the game gets flipped upside down on multiple occasions. One way to do that is to  use three tribes to prevent players to lock in 5-person alliances or more. A second way is to constantly keep the game changing and not let the players get to comfortable in their alliance and test their adaptability. Here’s where ‘twists’ come in and more precisely where the 'tribe swap' comes in. The moment we heard that we were getting three tribes this season, we could expect a switch around 4 episodes in the season. Knowing that, I predicted fireworks this week and boy did we get fireworks! We got two new tribes which both immediately produced some new interesting dynamics. So let’s get to the meat of it!

After the two tribes arrive at the reward challenge, Jeff almost immediately says those magic words that curls your toes because you know sparks will fly: ‘Drop your buffs, we’re switching tribes!’. The resulting switch makes for a different but very interesting Apari tribe. Sarah, as the only person, stays on Apari. Joining her are the three brainy smurfs and three beauty’s: Morgan, Jeremiah and Alexis. Now at first glance the situation is interesting but pretty clear. Three brains against three beauty’s and a brawn that will function as the swing vote to determine who comes on top in a Brain-Beauty clash.  But maybe we shouldn’t judge that to quickly when we look at the tree beauty’s. We already know that Morgan is on the outs with her former tribe, so the brains have their first crack right there. But next to that, previous episodes have shown us that Alexis and Jeremiah also don’t trust each other 100%. So the Beauty block might not be as solid as you think.

After a close loss in an entertaining reward challenge the newly formed Apari tribe heads back to camp where some surprising events unfold. You would think Morgan might be one of the beauty’s that considers flipping to the brains. But almost immediately it’s Alexis that throws Jeremiah and Morgan under the bus and proposes a 4-person alliance with the brains. Shortly after that, to my surprise, also Morgan, but especially Jeremiah throws the other two under the bus and wants to align with the brains. Like Spencer says, it’s funny but also very telling that the beauty’s are turning on each other so fast. LJ was clearly the glue keeping those beauty’s together. Take that away and they fall apart like dry sand. Now of course this results into a very interesting situation at the Apari tribe that sadly doesn’t get tested as they win the immunity challenge.

If we look at the Apari tribe right now there’s only one block and that’s the three brains. Next to the three brains we have now four individuals courting the three brains. And that’s why I love Survivor so much, it doesn’t matter how bleak your situation looks. From one day to another this game can flip upside down. The brains were on the brink of defeat but right now their in a massive power position and I see them getting to the merge intact for sure. But what move should the brains make now? Well they have four options and should think very hard and long on their next move. My first thought is to bring in Morgan in their alliance. Morgan is a free agent in the game and has no idol. So it doesn’t matter what happens in the other tribe, Morgan looks like a good ally right now. You also still need strength in the challenges, so they should keep Jeremiah. He’s not the biggest strategy player which doesn’t make him a threat. Now for the rest, it depends on what happens on the other tribe. If the brawns at Solana stay strong, they should contemplate on voting out Sarah as you don’t want to end up in a merge against six brawns. If the brawns fall apart (which they did) then that changes things. Alexis clearly stated that her main ally was Jefra and de facto also LJ. That should raise red flags with the three brains. If LJ and Jefra make it to the merge in one piece, Alexis will surely rejoin LJ and Jefra and even Jeremiah might rejoin them and you could be presented with a reunited Beauty front (plus Trish and maybe Tony) at the merge. Now taking what happened at Solona into account, it looks like their first target according to me should be Alexis. I’m very curious at what will actually happen when this tribe eventually has to go to tribal.

Next to a new Apari tribe we also got a new Solana tribe. Now, in comparison the Solana tribe didn’t look as exciting as the Apari tribe because the division looked pretty obvious. We had LJ and Jefra who stayed on Solana but sadly for them they drew the short end of the straw as they were joined with 5 brawns which made their situation very precarious. But the episode would prove that also the Solana tribe looks very interesting. When the newly formed tribe got back tot heir camp, they got to know each other and apparently LJ and Trish made a connection (well, Trish mostly did). Lj was desperate for a crack in that alliance and almost immediately one jumped in his lap. Now ofcourse the savvy player LJ is, he worked his magic and pretty easily converted Trish as fullbled ally. LJ only needed one more ally an Trish looked for that ally, on LJ’s behalf, towards Tony and pitched the idea to vote off Cliff. At first hand Tony had the right reaction. Now is not the time to vote off Cliff. Tony did a lot of work to gain control over the Brawn tribe and his strategy should be to keep the brawns together until it’s only the six of them left. Afterall, he has a 4-way alliance within the brawns to take him to the end, so every move against that would be counterproductive. Anyways the situation before tribal was clear. It’s either LJ or Cliff that goes but the choice falls upon what Tony decides. After a somewhat not so interesting tribal, we get to the point where I expected LJ to use his idol but… he doesn’t. Now, I have to give him props here. You have to have balls of freaking steel not to play your idol when you’re in the situation LJ was because I expected Tony to make the sensible decision to stick with the brawns. This could be because something happened before the tribal offscreen that reassured LJ but that really surprised me. In a resulting shocking vote, Tony decided to go against the brawns and blindside Cliff in a 4-3 vote.

The biggest victor here, clearly is LJ. Last week I told you guy’s that this episode would be a test for LJ if he can be adaptable and sway people to his cause. LJ passed this test with flying colors as he not only wrapped in Trish but he even managed to bamboozle Tony in making an unwise decision that might prove to be his downfall in the longterm. Anyways, this vote completely flipped the table in this tribe, as the remaining brawns Lindsey and Woo went from being topdogs to being knee deep in elimination troubles.

Exciting episodes lie ahead for Survivor Cagayan as these two new tribes promises alot of scrambling and surprising votes. If you’re curious what Cliff has to say the day after his vote-off, check out the video below. See you next week!