S28E05: Odd One Out.

It’s tribe swap time! The best seasons in the past have been the seasons that were unpredictable and where the game gets flipped upside down on multiple occasions. One way to do that is to  use three tribes to prevent players to lock in 5-person alliances or more. A second way is to constantly keep the game changing and not let the players get to comfortable in their alliance and test their adaptability. Here’s where ‘twists’ come in and more precisely where the 'tribe swap' comes in. The moment we heard that we were getting three tribes this season, we could expect a switch around 4 episodes in the season. Knowing that, I predicted fireworks this week and boy did we get fireworks! We got two new tribes which both immediately produced some new interesting dynamics. So let’s get to the meat of it!

After the two tribes arrive at the reward challenge, Jeff almost immediately says those magic words that curls your toes because you know sparks will fly: ‘Drop your buffs, we’re switching tribes!’. The resulting switch makes for a different but very interesting Apari tribe. Sarah, as the only person, stays on Apari. Joining her are the three brainy smurfs and three beauty’s: Morgan, Jeremiah and Alexis. Now at first glance the situation is interesting but pretty clear. Three brains against three beauty’s and a brawn that will function as the swing vote to determine who comes on top in a Brain-Beauty clash.  But maybe we shouldn’t judge that to quickly when we look at the tree beauty’s. We already know that Morgan is on the outs with her former tribe, so the brains have their first crack right there. But next to that, previous episodes have shown us that Alexis and Jeremiah also don’t trust each other 100%. So the Beauty block might not be as solid as you think.

After a close loss in an entertaining reward challenge the newly formed Apari tribe heads back to camp where some surprising events unfold. You would think Morgan might be one of the beauty’s that considers flipping to the brains. But almost immediately it’s Alexis that throws Jeremiah and Morgan under the bus and proposes a 4-person alliance with the brains. Shortly after that, to my surprise, also Morgan, but especially Jeremiah throws the other two under the bus and wants to align with the brains. Like Spencer says, it’s funny but also very telling that the beauty’s are turning on each other so fast. LJ was clearly the glue keeping those beauty’s together. Take that away and they fall apart like dry sand. Now of course this results into a very interesting situation at the Apari tribe that sadly doesn’t get tested as they win the immunity challenge.

If we look at the Apari tribe right now there’s only one block and that’s the three brains. Next to the three brains we have now four individuals courting the three brains. And that’s why I love Survivor so much, it doesn’t matter how bleak your situation looks. From one day to another this game can flip upside down. The brains were on the brink of defeat but right now their in a massive power position and I see them getting to the merge intact for sure. But what move should the brains make now? Well they have four options and should think very hard and long on their next move. My first thought is to bring in Morgan in their alliance. Morgan is a free agent in the game and has no idol. So it doesn’t matter what happens in the other tribe, Morgan looks like a good ally right now. You also still need strength in the challenges, so they should keep Jeremiah. He’s not the biggest strategy player which doesn’t make him a threat. Now for the rest, it depends on what happens on the other tribe. If the brawns at Solana stay strong, they should contemplate on voting out Sarah as you don’t want to end up in a merge against six brawns. If the brawns fall apart (which they did) then that changes things. Alexis clearly stated that her main ally was Jefra and de facto also LJ. That should raise red flags with the three brains. If LJ and Jefra make it to the merge in one piece, Alexis will surely rejoin LJ and Jefra and even Jeremiah might rejoin them and you could be presented with a reunited Beauty front (plus Trish and maybe Tony) at the merge. Now taking what happened at Solona into account, it looks like their first target according to me should be Alexis. I’m very curious at what will actually happen when this tribe eventually has to go to tribal.

Next to a new Apari tribe we also got a new Solana tribe. Now, in comparison the Solana tribe didn’t look as exciting as the Apari tribe because the division looked pretty obvious. We had LJ and Jefra who stayed on Solana but sadly for them they drew the short end of the straw as they were joined with 5 brawns which made their situation very precarious. But the episode would prove that also the Solana tribe looks very interesting. When the newly formed tribe got back tot heir camp, they got to know each other and apparently LJ and Trish made a connection (well, Trish mostly did). Lj was desperate for a crack in that alliance and almost immediately one jumped in his lap. Now ofcourse the savvy player LJ is, he worked his magic and pretty easily converted Trish as fullbled ally. LJ only needed one more ally an Trish looked for that ally, on LJ’s behalf, towards Tony and pitched the idea to vote off Cliff. At first hand Tony had the right reaction. Now is not the time to vote off Cliff. Tony did a lot of work to gain control over the Brawn tribe and his strategy should be to keep the brawns together until it’s only the six of them left. Afterall, he has a 4-way alliance within the brawns to take him to the end, so every move against that would be counterproductive. Anyways the situation before tribal was clear. It’s either LJ or Cliff that goes but the choice falls upon what Tony decides. After a somewhat not so interesting tribal, we get to the point where I expected LJ to use his idol but… he doesn’t. Now, I have to give him props here. You have to have balls of freaking steel not to play your idol when you’re in the situation LJ was because I expected Tony to make the sensible decision to stick with the brawns. This could be because something happened before the tribal offscreen that reassured LJ but that really surprised me. In a resulting shocking vote, Tony decided to go against the brawns and blindside Cliff in a 4-3 vote.

The biggest victor here, clearly is LJ. Last week I told you guy’s that this episode would be a test for LJ if he can be adaptable and sway people to his cause. LJ passed this test with flying colors as he not only wrapped in Trish but he even managed to bamboozle Tony in making an unwise decision that might prove to be his downfall in the longterm. Anyways, this vote completely flipped the table in this tribe, as the remaining brawns Lindsey and Woo went from being topdogs to being knee deep in elimination troubles.

Exciting episodes lie ahead for Survivor Cagayan as these two new tribes promises alot of scrambling and surprising votes. If you’re curious what Cliff has to say the day after his vote-off, check out the video below. See you next week!