S28E09: Bag Of Tricks.

What a season this is turning out to be. With it’s latest episode Bag of Tricks, Survivor Cagayan has well-earned it’s spot in the top 10 of Survivor’s greatest seasons, maybe even top 5. Who’s going to win? Your guess is as good as mine because  yesterday’s tribal has once again turned  this game upside down. But just like the tribal where Sarah was voted out, we have to ask ourselves if we saw a move that was just as smart as it was entertaining?

                                                  

After Morgan was voted off the situation seemed pretty clear. We had an alliance of six against an alliance that was reduced to three members. Therefore a pagonging for Spencer, Jeremiah and Tash seemed inevitable. Spencer did still have his idol but against an alliance of six that’ll just get you a reprieval from execution. But by voting for Tony, the three remnants of the Aparri alliance did put a crack in the alliance of six that would soon become a chasm. The four votes made Tony paranoid and question his position in the game. Of course Tony overreacted to the four votes. If anything he should see it as a compliment for the game he has been playing. Tony’s paranoia is indicative of Tony’s playstyle. He’s a like a hurricane or Tasmanian Devil reacting impulsive, destroying and distrusting everything around him (remind you of someone?). Tony’s reason why they voted for Morgan was equally ridiculous. Their motivation to vote for Morgan wasn’t any less strategic as the reason why the other three voted for Tony.

Scared for his future in the game, Tony searches for a way to get rid of his biggest threat: LJ. After winning a reward challenge with Spencer and Jeremiah, which sends them to a shower, massage and feast, Tony doesn’t wait long to pitch his idea. Having no other option, Spencer and Jeremiah quickly agree with Tony’s plan. For people who put a lot of feathers on Spencers hat for manipulating Tony, I disagree. There’s no proof during the episode that Spencer pushes or manipulates Tony in to voting for LJ. Tony already decided to vote for LJ long before he approached Spencer. All Spencer did was nod and agree with Tony.

Well aware of Tony’s paranoia, his alliance and more specific Trish and LJ try to handle Tony because they know you don’t want Tony in scramble  mode. LJ even wisely stands Tash up to her offer of a strategy proposal. At that point LJ seems to have everything under control with Trish as his second in command and confident that a three-three split vote will keep his alliance safe.. But that’s not the case if Tony has anything to do about it. After the immunity challenge where LJ nearly won and threw Tony’s plan in the bin, Tony approaches Woo and tells him the lie that LJ is gunning for him. As gullible as Woo is, he immediately believes everything Tony is saying and is on board for voting for LJ (Woo is like the Forrest Gump of Survivor Cagayan). Tony is thinking one down and one to go and approaches Trish to feed her the same lie. Now of course Trish is a bit more skeptical then Woo. Trish being very close to LJ is very reluctant to vote for LJ and tries to talk Tony out of it. This brings Trish in a difficult predicament. Trish has a final three agreement with LJ next to her already established final three deal with Tony. Therefore Trish isn’t wrong to want to keep the alliance of six together. Because if they do stick together I can’t imagine a scenario where Trish isn’t in the final three. And even though Trish isn’t favored by the audience, she does seem to be well-liked in the game which gives her a shot at winning the million. With Tony on the warpath she is forced to make a choice earlier then she anticipated.

At tribal Tony pulled out his bag of tricks and showed he also walks the talk. Woo, Spencer Tash and Jeremiah rally behind Tony resulting in a 5-3-1 that blindsides LJ and sends him home. Now the question is: did Tony just play a smart move? I’m inclined to say no. In my opinion Tony put him in potentially grave danger and I wouldn’t be surprised if Tony bites the dust next week. He came from an alliance of six and now only has Woo. He’s up against Jeremiah, Spencer and Tash who aren’t inclined to stick with Tony just because he saved their ass. Then you have Trish who feels betrayed by Tony just like Jefra. And then let’s not forget ChaosKass. She didn’t get a lot of screentime this week but a lot has changed for her aswell.  The big winners seems to be Spencer, Jeremiah hand Tash. If I were them I would approach Jefra and Kass. LJ was Jefra’s rock, without him she’s a floater desperate to hang on to the first person who throws her a buoy. And Kass has proven to be willing to flop in the past and now that her alliance of six has exploded she might do it again.

I feel like the better play for Tony was to wait three more days and vote off LJ next week, although you need big cahones to play the move he did. Now he’s stuck with the three remnants of the Aparri alliance and they have his fate in their hands.  If Tony ever wants to play again, he needs to become less hyper and mature his game. If he can do that he can be one of the best. What this does mean is that we still have no idea how the endgame of this season is shaping up to be. This promises some very exciting tribals in the future and I don’t know about you but I can’t wait to see how this season unfolds. Check out the Day after and Ponderosa vids with LJ below and I’ll see you next time.