The curtain has fallen on the 28th season of Survivor and we’ve gotten a winner that can rightfully take his place in the hall of fame of Survivor. That’s why I thought there’s no better casestudy to write about then that of the winner.
In a season with a great cast where nearly nobody was a real waste of castspace and everyone tried to play this game hard, Tony made this season. He was the most dominant player who played hard and was prepared to go far. When he encountered an obstacle, he blindsided that obstacle. But most important, he was able to think outside the box. He introduced the never before seen spy shack, the bag of tricks and found three hidden immunity idols. And to top it off, he had a more or less good social game. He played hard but wasn’t cruel in a way Russel Hantz was. This caused the jury to reward him in the end with the title of sole survivor and the million dollar prize. It’s difficult to call this an undeserved win but let’s take a closer look at the winner of Survivor Cagayan: Tony Vlachos!
Tony clearly has a knack for this game and has an amazing read on people, courtesy of his 13-year long career as a cop. But that doesn’t mean he has played a flawless game. He also defined his game by impulsive moves. Tony already admitted that he acted on instinct for most of the time, which lead him to some questionable moves. Whatever Tony winded up doing, it was always spectacular but it wasn’t always the best option. Let’s take a look at Tony’s moves and see where he shined and where there’s still room for improvement.
His first move and in retrospect maybe his best move, was to team up with Trish. As became very clear in Trish her jury speech, Trish was an intricate part of Tony’s game and the reason that Tony was able to get away with all his shenanigans. Trish was 50% of Tony’s social game as Trish was a very well-liked person in the group, despite being one of the least popular players with the audience. Whenever people were ready to give up on Tony for his latest betrayal, it was Trish who put out the fire and assured them she has Tony under control. Of course it would turn out nobody had Tony under control but if it weren’t for Trish, Tony would never have gotten away with what he did.
But in the very beginning Tony and Trish only had only each other since they were on the outs with their tribe. This makes their story even more impressive. By manipulating Sarah and swearing on his badge he pulled in Sarah and Woo and took control of the Brawn tribe. But it wasn’t until the tribe swap that Tony got involved in a first major blindside. Now I don’t want to overstate Tony’s role in the Cliff blindside since I think this was more Trish her move then Tony’s. It was Trish who connected with LJ and Jefra and it was Trish who ultimately convinced Tony to step in to an alliance with them.
So up to the merge you might conclude that Tony hadn’t really pulled a big move just yet. He teamed up with Trish, played Sarah and took control of the Brawn tribe. But the Cliff vote was largely due to Trish. Tony also made his first mistake by yelling ‘top five’ loudly and burning his bridge with Sarah. This is proof of Tony’s impulsiveness that hurts his game at times.
Just like at the start of the Brawn tribe, things weren’t looking any better at the start of the merge. Tony’s five were up against the Aparri five with Sarah as the swingvote with whom he burned his bridges. This also puts a dent in the theory that Spencer deserves it more because Spencer had to fight from behind. Tony had to fight from behind and get back in the game just as much.
Despite being in a bad position, they managed to pull in Kass, vote out Sarah and conquer the majority. But just like the Cliff vote, I would give credits to Trish here. It was Trish who saw the crack between Sarah and Kass and acted on it. This proves again how vital Trish was to Tony. You will also notice that one tribal in to the merge, Tony hasn’t really pulled a big move. You could even say that Trish played the better game up and till then and I would agree with that.
It wasn’t until the LJ vote that Tony really pulled out his bag of tricks. Tony recognized LJ as the strategic threat he is but was looking for an excuse to take him out. When LJ was prepared to vote out Woo, Tony found his excuse and targeted LJ. He pulled in Woo, Spencer, Jeremiah and Tash and blindsided LJ out of the game. He also approached Trish but she was reluctant to the idea, mainly because LJ was a big part of Trish her strategy. Despite that, he continued with his plan anyway, making this 100% his move. One of the first rules of Survivor is get them before they get you and he executed that flawlessly here. He also kind of bound Trish to him as he blew Trish her other final three deal with Jefra and LJ to smithereens.
Tony seemed to have smooth sailing ahead from then on, were it not for the never existing women alliance. Paranoid as Tony is, he sees threats everywhere. That’s why it wasn’t that hard of a sell for Spencer and Tash to convince Tony of a women alliance. In yet another rather impulsive move he blindsided Jefra and kept Trish once again out of the loop. Like the LJ vote this is just as much 100% his move.But unlike the LJ vote, this vote felt kind of unnecessary. The women alliance never was a thing, he made even more enemies and gained almost nothing. If he gained anything, it was the unquestionable crown as kingpin of the game. After being kept in the dark two times now, Trish moved to the background of the game, putting Tony forward as the biggest player in the game and the super favorite to win it.
Trish her move to the background of the game was somewhat of a prelude to her eventual exit. After Woo was already tempted to vote out Trish to secure his spot at the end, Tony finally recognized Trish as the jurythreat she is. Trish was the only other player with a strong game then Tony and she didn’t even play that much of a lesser game then Tony. Tony saw that, forcing her to take a spot on the jurybench. But here as well, Tony made an error. Voting for Trish struck me as somewhat of a panic move because he lost control of the group. But he could have gotten rid of Trish without getting his hands bloody. In that regard, his game could definitely improve.
Tony made enemies along the way but managed to sit next to a goat which made it impossible for the jury to ignore his game. He played an aggressive game which does remind of Russel Hantz but he differs in one core aspect of Russel Hantz: social game. Despite fooling and manipulating, he doesn’t rub it in their faces and isn’t cruel for no apparent reason. So you could see Tony as a Russel Hantz with a social game, which is something that sounds very promising if he inevitably returns to play again.
If Tony does ever want to play again, he needs to become less hyper and mature his game. If he can do that he can truly become one of the best. He should maybe also drop the swearing on the heads of his family. An all-star will never fall for that and it’s also kind of distasteful to me. In all honesty I can’t wait to see Tony play again. I’m really curious how he would fare against all-stars. In the end Tony outwitted, outlasted and mostly outplayed the others, so what more can you ask of a great Survivor winner?
That pretty much closes the book on this season for me. I want to thank everyone who read, liked and shared throughout the season. Just like Survivor I’m taking a break until Survivor returns and I hope you will return with me. This doesn’t mean I’ll stop writing however. I’m working on another blog that I’ll start up in July. So stay tuned and I’ll see you guy’s next time!
After 39 days, 13 episodes, we finally have our winner of Survivor Cagayan. And with Tony we truly have a 100% deserving winner the likes of we don’t see that often. Usually there’s always a valid argument why you can say the best player didn’t win. But not this season. Tony played the hardest, the smartest and the most strategic and he managed to be even as well-liked as you can be, playing the game like Tony did.
In this final episode, we got 3 more tribals and the expected final 2. We got a lot of drama with the ‘loved-ones visit’ and the questions from the jury. But we also got 2 entertaining final tribal councils where Spencer’s exit wasn’t that absolute as you would expect. And the fact that Woo had all the power in his hands in the end was as much entertaining as it was ironic. Let’s break it down.
Right from the get-go Survivor blindsides us by changing up the format of the finale. Two seasons ago they also decided to change up the format of the final. They put the pre-jury boots in the audience, didn’t even let everyone in the jury speak at the reunion and they also gave airtime to people who had nothing to do with the season and didn’t add anything to the finale. Like many of you would agree this was a change for the worse. Apparently Survivor agreed as they changed it up again. Not only did they reinstate the entire cast on the center stage, they also interrupted the final episode a couple of times by giving a behind the scenes look at the live reunion show. I really enjoyed this and the fact that it interrupted the final episode didn’t bother me. I also felt this was an added value to the show. So congratz to CBS and Survivor, as far as I’m concerned these are changes for the good.
After decompressing and a good night sleep after yet another blindside, the spirits of the remaining four survivors are lifted when a boat arrives full of loved ones. Kass her husband, Tony’s friend, Spencer’s sister and Woo’s cousin join the final four in a small feast. After the festivities are done, the final four and their loved ones head over for an immunity challenge where a fear of height is not advisable. Sadly for Kass, she did not seem to be completely at ease at top of that unstable looking pole. This caused Kass to end up in a unwinnable position. But thanks to the support of her husband and her calm but efficient puzzling skills, she made a tremendous comeback and won immunity. Kudos to Kass!
Of course, this spells appending doom for Spencer. He’s still the biggest threat out there and now he has nothing to protect him. This doesn’t mean that he has no plan however. Spencer attentively spotted that Jeff Probst didn’t say that the previous immunity challenge was their chance to plead their case to the jury. This means that we’re heading to a final 2. With this in mind Spencer approaches Tony with his theory and states that if he votes Spencer out now and Tony doesn’t win immunity next challenge, Tony’s out. A valid statement and Spencer’s only argument to possibly save him. He articulates his argument very well and this shows once again that Spencer has a mind to play this game.
But what about Tony? Spencer’s argument is a legitimate reason for Tony to worry. So did he make the wrong decision to vote out Spencer anyways? I would say not really. It is true that with Spencer gone and if Tony doesn’t win immunity the chances are very high that Tony goes next. However, if he keeps Spencer, there’s also a very high chance that Spencer wins the next challenge and with it, also wins this season. So there’s a high risk either way for Tony and he has to decide with risk is bigger. In the end Tony figured by keeping Woo, he at least has a bigger chance of winning in the final tribal instead of going up against Spencer. This means the end for Spencer’s journey and he goes out fourth (as I predicted ^^) in a 3-1 vote.
The final three doesn’t get long to enjoy the achievement of reaching the final three. The next morning they’re presented with an immense maze as the finale immunity challenge. In a showdown between Kass and Woo, where literally a half of a second separates the two, Woo comes on top and wins immunity and his spot in the final 2. This means that Woo decides who sits next to him and who becomes the final jurymember. Pretty ironic, if you consider Woo was the dimwitted player that went through the motions the entire season, following the commands of his general Tony.
Now you might think the choice is simple for Woo, take Kass to the end and win the game. But nothing is simple in Woo-land. The choice between Kass and Tony is a huge morale dilemma for Woo. Does he stay loyal to Tony who he relied on so heavily the entire season? Or does he make the decision that makes sense? Now to understand Woo’s choice, you have to take a good look at his character. He comes from a culture where respect and honor is everything. Also, Woo doesn’t have that cutthroat mentality and just is a nice guy. With just a day earlier, saying that taking Tony would be the stupidest move ever, Woo chooses the honorable way and keeps Tony and sends Kass to the jury. Is it a smart move? Of course not but it is a move that fits his character. You can say a lot about Woo, but he is at least consistent in what he does and I guess I can respect that, even though this decision cost him a million dollars as the reunion show would prove.
With Woo and Tony in the final 2, you would think done deal right and Tony wins? I kind of had my doubts after the questions of the jury. Tony was grilled by the jury and he took a defensive stance which rarely is a good way to go. Sarah and Morgan were a question mark to me and so was Jefra who went hard on Tony. Jeremiah also seemed to be insulted by Tony’s gameplay. LJ seemed dissatisfied by Tony’s answer to his question. Trish had a very emotional reaction which also made me doubt her vote. The only vote I was sure of was Spencer, who made a plea to the jury to vote for Tony. A plea that fell on deaf ears with Tasha because she gave her vote to Woo which struck me as odd. In the end the votes weren’t that close at all. Tony slammed Woo with an 8-1 vote and became the very much satisfying and deserving winner of Survivor Cagayan.
In the reunion show we didn’t hear much interesting. Apparently Sarah and Tony aren’t talking because of a twitter dispute. (who cares right?) We did however learn that the next season will be Blood vs. Water 2. And if the rumors are right, the second Blood vs. Water season will be played with all new players. Now I never was a huge fan of the first Blood vs. Water because I felt it took away the feeling that literally anybody could play and win this game. With Blood vs. Water it seemed like you had to be connected with an all-star to have a shot at playing now. I think I would take more enjoyment if it were all new players. Definitely if the cast is as good as this season.
Now the season of Survivor might have ended but I’m not taking a summer break just yet. There’s still a casestudy to be made, which will center around the winner, Tony Vlachos. I also want to share some plans for a blog project that I will be doing in the summer break. So more news to come, stay tuned.
No 'Day after' vids but you can find the teaser for next season and ponderosa vid down below and I will see you next time!
Next Wednesday the curtain will fall and we’ll see how this most entertaining season of Survivor will come to a close. That’s why it seemed the most opportune moment to take an in-depth look at the jury. After all, convincing the jury is probably the most difficult part of this game. How do you convince the people you voted out, to give you their vote to win the title of sole Survivor? In seasons past, jury’s have been more or less predictable if they would vote for someone or against (bitter) someone. But this season in particular has a very difficult jury to read. There are several jurymembers whom I’m not sure will vote bitter or will vote for the person they think deserves it the most. That makes it pretty difficult to predict a winner, even more now that we know it’s going to be a final two and two more jurymembers will join the bench. That’s why I’ll go over each of the jurymembers we already have and go over their possible train of thoughts. Let’s get rolling!
Let’s start with the first person to have joined the jury: Sarah. Sarah has entertained us over the past episodes with some very funny facial expressions at the tribal council events and kind of reminds me of Eliza Orlins from Survivor Micronesia. I think Sarah is desperate for an excuse not to vote for Tony. Sarah is still ticked of for Tony’s betrayal and desperate for someone to bring him down. Together with most of the people on ponderosa she’s hoping for that person to be Spencer. So if Spencer gets to the end I’m pretty sure he’ll get Sarah’s vote. If Spencer doesn’t get to the end, I really don’t know who’ll get Sarah’s vote. The only person Sarah probably hates more then Tony is Kass, so a final two with Kass and Tony is probably her worst nightmare. She might even wind up voting for non-entity Woo just because she dislikes Tony and Kass that much.
Second to have joined the jury is Morgan. Morgan has graced the jurybench with her presence several times now but she kind of seemed very lackluster. She doesn’t seem interested in how this season will end and is only there because she has to. It might just be a part of her personality but ever since the episode where she left, she lost all interest in the game and who’ll win it.
Like Sarah I think Morgan is hoping for Spencer to reach the final. She probably detests Kass like everyone else but I don’t really think she hates Tony as much as Sarah does and she probably doesn’t even care about Woo. In the end she was aligned with Spencer and got along with him so it’s not a surprise if she would vote for Spencer. If Spencer doesn’t reach the end, I think Morgan’s vote will be the same as Sarah’s vote whatever that may be.
Third is LJ who was Tony’s first big blindside of the game. LJ is one of the more interesting jurymembers. He has every reason to be pissed of at Tony and cast a bitter vote for someone else. But LJ also profiled himself as a hardcore player so it would be pretty hypocritical for him to cast a bitter vote. I believe LJ was hoping for Trish to make it to the end as became clear in Trish her ponderosa vid (Trish @ ponderosa). Trish played a very strong social game and pulled of some good strategic moves so she would be a good alternative for Tony and LJ would be right. But now that Trish is out I wonder who LJ will vote for. I think he'll still choose Tony over Kass or Woo. It would be very hypocritical from LJ to vote for either of those after the game Tony played. But if the choice were to be between Tony and Spencer, I’m not sure what he would do. Would he jump on the bandwagon and choose Spencer over Tony because he is so well-liked? Or would he still recognize that Tony played the best game despite that Tony was the reason LJ is out of the game. I think in that instance LJ would stay true to himself and give Tony his vote for a million dollars.
The fourth player to join the jurybench is Jeremiah. Best buds with Spencer, it’s no surprise he wants his buddie to win. But what if he doesn’t get Spencer as an option? I don’t really know. Jeremiah never voiced or showed a distinct opinion about either Kass, Woo or Tony to know who he’s voting for. But I guess he probably won’t vote for Kass since she screwed over his game like many others. But then whether he’d choose Tony or Woo is more difficult. I think in the end he would vote where he thinks the majority of the jury would vote. He always was a follower in the game, why would he do any different outside of the game.
Number five to join the jury and the next victim of a Tony blindside is Jefra. Jefra never really voiced an opinion in the game so who will she give her vote to? I think if she’s presented with the option to vote for Spencer, she’ll do it. Tony has betrayed her to many times to get her vote now. She doesn’t know how to play this game so she wouldn’t recognize Tony’s game and reward him for it. Woo is in the same league as Tony as far as Jefra’s is concerned so she’s not inclined to give Woo her vote. And everyone hates Kass so she’s not getting her vote either. So if not Spencer as an option who would she vote for? A dreadful choice for her I’m sure. Like Jeremiah I think Jefra would go with the flow and vote with the majority.
Sixth jurymember is Tasha, the challenge beast. No surprise that she would want Spencer to win. She played the entire game in a close alliance with him, so you can’t really blame her for wanting to vote for Spencer. But again who would she vote for if she didn’t get Spencer as an option? Again hard to tell if she’ll vote bitter or reward Tony for the game he has played. I think a vote from Tasha for Kass is out of the question. She almost played the entire season with Kass and Kass burned her game, so you can’t expect Tasha to vote for Kass after that. I think Tash is the kind of player who will recognize Tony’s game without Tony being her most favorite person. If she does end up to vote bitter her vote will probably go to Woo.
The latest player to have joined the jury is Trish. If there’s one sure thing you can say about Trish, it’s that she won’t vote for Kass. That would be a blindside like we’ve never seen before. Would she vote for Spencer? I doubt it. She might be so pissed of at Tony and recognize that Woo hasn’t done anything to deserve the win, that she might end up voting for Spencer but I don’t think so. Does Woo have chance to receive Trish her vote? Highly doubtful but Trish might feel so betrayed by Tony that she gives her vote to her only remaining ally Woo. But since Woo turned on her just as much as Tony I doubt she’ll do that. In the end, I think she’ll stick with Tony like she has done the entire game. She has shown before that she can be very forgiving for Tony’s actions. Also she likes to play strategy and respects players who do the same. Add to that, that Trish told in the Survivor after show that she forgave and hangs out with Tony, I believe she’ll vote for Tony if she gets the chance.
As you can see, not an easy jury to predict. It just adds to the amazing season we’ve seen thus far. We can draw some conclusions however. One is that Spencer wins if he gets to the end. Two is that Kass will never ever win this game in a million years.
With still two people to join the jury, there still a number of scenario’s possible. Will Tony get to the end and be rewarded for his amazing game? Or will he be punished by a bitter jury or by his more lacking social game? Or is Woo, by some miracle winning this game? I guess in this season everything is possible and I’ll be more then happy to see how it all unfolds this Wednesday. Enjoy the final and I’ll see you next time!
Did we already say how great this season is? I think Woo described the situation the best this episode: a very dysfunctional family. Tony the controlling dad. Trish, the mother having a bitchfit. Kass the misunderstood daughter looking for a fight with mom. Spencer, the son who’s in the middle of it all. And Woo, the foreigner that tries to understand but fails (like Fez from That 70’s Show basically). In the end the family bands together against the mother and kicks her out of the house. Now a final three with Kass, Tony and Woo seems to be in the making unless…Spencer wins immunity, which seems more and more of probability if we see how his story is being told. Then there’s still the rising rumor and possibility that a final two is happening. What ever the case, this is going to be, to use Jeff’s words, ‘a crazy finish’.
Let’s first take a look at the foreigner’s performance, as Woo calls himself in this dysfunctional family. He actually did a fairly well job this episode. But when Woo plays strategy, it’s still very apparent it doesn’t come natural to him at all. When you see Woo thinking, you can literally see him suffering. But you do have to give him credit for upping his game the past two episodes. His head was on the chopping block after all and by voting out Trish, he not only saved himself but eliminated the person who could have taken his place at the final. Not only that but he also basically saved Tony by voting out Trish because Trish was Tony’s biggest jurythreat, besides the obvious Spencer threat.
The only thing stopping Woo from pleading his case to the jury is Spencer winning immunity or a final two. And what of his chances when he eventually gets his chance in front of the jury? Pretty much bupkis, I think. He would probably win over Kass and finish second but that’s about it. I very much doubt he has a chance against Tony and winning over Spencer is definitely out of the question. But let’s entertain, for a second, the very implausible and most anti-climatic scenario there is. What about a final two between Kass and Woo? The thought alone is both funny and depressing but it could result in a win for Woo, although the choice would be dreadful for the jury, I’m sure. But in all reality I think Woo will land on the podium but will miss the gold medal by several miles.
Next is the misunderstood sister who goes head to head with mom. Kass too, had a big episode this week. It was Kass who came up with the idea to target Trish. Not bad thinking since, like with Woo, Trish is a threat for Kass to make it to the end. And Kass thinks, if Tony doesn’t see Trish as a threat and takes her out, she’ll do it! But the returned ChaosKass didn’t count for a ChoasTrish to hear her plans. On learning that Kass wants to take Trish out, Trish goes of on a very vocal rant on Kass. The rant was over the top and unnecessary but it did show how poor Kass her social skills are and how misinformed Kass is about how she’s being perceived. I think on the one hand Kass doesn’t care what other people think about her. But on the other hand, Kass apparently thinks that she’s playing an amazing game and that the jury will see that. Proof of that is the very arrogant middle finger towards Trish when Trish is walking the walk of shame after being voted out. Who does that in front of everyone to see? She won’t have won any jurymembers, that’s for sure and she didn’t have any to begin with.
Kass also went head to head with Tony. Tony offered her a final three deal but after the Jefra vote Tony burned all his bridges with Kass. Kass wants to villainize Tony so he’s the perfect goat to take to the end with her. Kass shared what Tony told her with Woo and she succeeded in creating chaos because that’s the moment when Woo’s wheels started turning. I liked the idea behind it and the gut to go up against Tony whom she succeeded in making nervous. But in the end her plan to villainize Tony probably won’t matter since she’s the most hated person out there, which makes winning for her impossible.
Next up is the good son, stuck in the middle: Spencer. He had a really good episode as well. His back was against the wall after all. Nobody wants to go to the end with Spencer and the only way to save himself was winning immunity. Thanks to a great performance, perseverance and of course massive failing on the part of Tony (Funny how Tony was randomly shifting puzzle pieces like a mad man) he won immunity and could take a front row seat to see how the others would tear each other apart.
And tear each other apart they did. But what was Spencer’s role in it? Not a whole lot according to me. It was Kass who lit the fire and Woo who was the swingvote. All you can give Spencer credit for is throwing some oil on the fire but nothing more. Spencer was just going through the events, basically being a pawn. I don’t really see this changing towards the last episode, despite Trish her exit. Spencer still is target number one to the rest and going up against Spencer is committing Survivor suicide. So Spencer will still have to win immunity to get the chance to plead his case to the jury. But if he does get to the end, the game is over and Spencer is the winner of Survivor Cagayan.
Last but one is Tony, the controlling dad desperate to keep his authority in check. Tony has been behind the wheel for a while now but this episode he seemed to have lost control over the steer. His lies started to catch up to him when Kass told Woo that Tony promised her a final three with him and Trish. This wavered Woo’s loyalty towards Tony. Woo finally saw that Tony is prepared to do everything to get to the end and that even he himself isn’t safe. Tony tried to keep everyone in line but the train had already left the station. It got even worse when Spencer won immunity after Tony had a huge lead.
With Spencer immune, Tony had two options. First, he could have opted to save Trish because after all he does have two idols. But this episode made it very clear that Tony doesn’t see Trish as the jurythreat she is. He wants her in the final next to him. But then why didn’t he save her by playing the normal idol for her while still having the special idol for himself.
Tony’s second option was letting things run it’s course but stick with Trish. If Trish is Tony’s biggest jury threat (of course next to Spencer) then this was the perfect scenario. Even if Tony stayed with Trish, she still would have been voted out but Tony could have kept his hands clean and gotten a guaranteed juryvote.
Instead Tony goes for option three: sticking with the numbers. By doing so, Tony not only looses one of his closest allies but by voting for her, he might have lost a juryvote in Trish as well. It just seemed very unnecessary to me to vote for Trish. The whole thing kind of felt like a panic move from Tony because he was loosing control over the group.
In the end he might have lost an ally but they did him a favor by targeting Trish. He lost his biggest jurythreat next to Spencer and can now focus on a final three with Kass and Woo, which is pretty much cat in the bag for Tony. It’s just a shame that by voting for Trish he might have lost himself a juryvote and enhanced his villain perception towards the jury.
Last is the mother of this bunch, who drew the short end of the stick in the end but she kind of has herself to blame. Trish was getting a little to comfortable in her position. With the finish in sight, Trish was probably already thinking about her jury speech but she should know that you always have to stay on your toes. She also reacted too emotional on hearing Kass talk about targeting her. In the past she showed that she can take the rational decision over the emotional one. But this episode she went back to the Trish that went of against Lindsey. With just as much venom as she yelled to Lindsey, she yells to Kass. The whole rant felt unnecessary and over the top. In the end Kass got the last laugh and send Trish packing in a 4-1 vote and gave Trish a middle finger to go along the way.
With Trish now gone, only four are left: A hero, a villain and two goats. The villain has to get rid of the hero before they get to the finish because everyone loves a hero. If he can get rid of Spencer however, Tony is the superfavorite to win unless he burned to many bridges along the way. We’ll see how it all ends this Wednesday. Enjoy Trish her ponderosa and ‘Day after’ vid below and I’ll see you next time!
In the latest episode Kass brought her chaos back front and center in an attempt to oust Tony. In the end she backed out of the move and did nothing instead. It did, however inspire me to take a closer look at Kass her journey this season.
Kass will most definitely be remembered as ChaosKass that made the move that was a turning point this season and thus she will have made her impact on the season whatever still happens. But ever since that move, Kass is under the impression that she played an amazing game and everyone else is dumber then a bag of rocks. Is that true or is she just having a massive brainfart? In the end she is in the final 5 while thirteen others aren’t so she must have done something, right?
Say what you want about Kass but she did make her mark on this season. At the start of the season I didn’t have high hopes for the mother/attorney. She did however struck me of having the potential to be a player like Kathy from Survivor Marquesas and the first all-stars. A more older women with a lot of experience who is calm and can read people very well. Kass might be in the same age group with a lot of experience but with a self-proclaimed nickname as ChaosKass you aren’t calm and reading people didn’t turn out to be one of her fortes either.
Kass her season can be summarized by three events. First you had the dilemma between keeping Spencer or J’tia early on in the season. At that moment she was pretty much in control of a decaying tribe together with Tash. She was 50% responsible for choosing to keep Spencer over J’tia, so saying she should have kept J’tia instead, like she did last episode, is just highlighting your own flaws in the season. But was it the wrong choice? I would rather argue against that. J’tia was a loose canon. She might have been loyal then but there’s no guarantee she would stay loyal, or at least any more loyal then Spencer. Spencer was an added value in challenges and eleven episodes in, Spencer has proven his loyalty to the brain which is something you can’t say about Kass. That kind of irony is typical about Kass.
The second event is the move that will determine her legacy on survivor, not only as a survivor player but also as a person. Flipping to the Solana alliance was a completely unnecessary and emotional move. The fact the Kass didn’t see that the Aparri alliance had to cater to Sarah because she was the swingvote, is proof of Kass her limited survivor skills. From Tasha her interview on the Survivor aftershow, we learned that Kass was still considered, at least by Tash as part of her Final three. And I think that goes for a lot of people in the Aparri alliance. So basically did Kass not only throw away a final three deal but she also pissed off 5 people, which make it pretty much impossible to win the game at this point.
ChaosKass seemed like a one-time thing because after that Kass took a backseat and didn’t do a whole lot. What she did do was get more arrogant by the day. She seemed to think that the move she made was an amazing move which is very questionable.
It took two Tony blindsides for Kass to cause some chaos again. Frustrated with Tony she approaches Woo, Tash and Spencer to blindside Tony. Now, you have to give her credit that she’s making a move and the move itself isn’t a bad one. The only thing is that Tony is the wrong target. It’s best for Kass her game to vote out Trish since she’s the biggest jurythreat because she played a good game and made few enemies. In the end she realized that Tony is not the correct target since he’s disliked by a lot of people. So she aborts the plan and stays with Tony to vote out Tash. This is a missed opportunity to me since she could have continued with the plan but only changed the intended target to Trish.
This brings us to the future of Kass this last couple of episodes. Kass has a high chance of making the final three at this point. Her only obstacle is Trish because an all-brawn final three is the only way Kass doesn’t get in the final three. If Tony is smart he takes Kass to the end instead of Trish aswell but I’m still not sure if Tony sees Trish as that big of a jurythreat.
Now to her chances to actually win this game? Zero, I would say. Even with a final three of Kass, Woo and Tony, I believe she’ll lose to Tony and probably even Woo. Kass has burned to many bridges to stand a chance but I’m sure she’ll blame it to a short-minded and bitter jury. It may be a bitter jury but she hasn’t played an amazing game that deserves to win. She made one move that had a big impact and it was a bad move. So in the end ChaosKass will have colored this season but as a survivorplayer she was more of a storm in a glass of water if anything else. See you next time!
Just like the Jefra vote felt very similar to the LJ vote, so does this vote feel very similar to the Jeremiah vote. Nevertheless this episode had a lot of potential: a counteroffensive against Tony, a potential idol bonanza and Woo even started to strategize. But in the end this episode failed to live up to it’s potential. Tony is still in full control. ChaosKass turned out to be a mild wind instead of a storm and Woo stuck his tail back between his legs. Now it seems the situation is clear: all vs. Spencer. Who will stop Tony now?
After returning from yet another Tony blindside not everyone was taking it the same way. For example Trish had yet again a very smart response to Tony’s actions. Just like with the LJ vote she doesn’t have an emotional reaction but stays calm and reaffirms her loyalty to Tony saying she understood what he did, even though she probably didn’t. This again proves to me that Trish knows very well what she’s doing. Her plan is to go to the end with Tony and appear to be the loyal tribe mate while Tony is the big bad wolf. I still wonder if Tony sees Trish as that Jury threat because if he does he should get her out as soon as he can. Trish is to me the only one (besides Spencer of course but I don’t believe he reaches the end) who can beat Tony at the end.
Someone who doesn’t take Tony’s latest betrayal that lightly is Kass. Kass is fed up with Tony’s shenanigans and when she thinks she heard Tony talking smack about her behind her back, she goes back to her ChaosKass ways and goes into a confrontation with Tony. The confrontation leads to Tony’s reveal that he has the superpowered idol. Not Tony’s smartest move but luckily for him nobody really believes him. I guess that’s the upside of being a chronic lier. Frustrated with Tony, Kass approaches Spencer and Tash for a reunion of the brains in order to vote out Tony. Of course Tash and Spence agree and all they need from then on is one more vote: Woo.
The opportunity to approach Woo is served on a silver plate when Kass, Spencer and Woo win the reward challenge. At the reward we learn that Woo is great with children (they’re on his level, right?) and that Spencer hates kids (good luck landing a women with that attitude Spence). After the formalities with the kids are all said and done, it’s time for Spence and Kass to present Woo with their plan. And then the strangest thing happens: Woo is strategizing…well kind of anyways. After a lot of ‘uh’ and ‘I’ll definitely consider it.’ Woo decides to take the plunge and go with the plan. Great move on Woo’s part if he went through with it anyways.
Back at camp Tony proves once again he has a real nack for this game and is really good at reading people. He asks Woo about the reward and what was said. And even though Woo didn’t do that bad of a job lying to Tony, Tony’s logic to question Woo’s word were spot on.
At the immunity challenge it shows that counting is a hard thing to do after suffering for more then 30 days. In the end Spencer wins immunity leaving Tash targetable for the vote. But Tash has a back-up plan: the alliance with Kass and Woo. The four of them decide to split the vote between Trish and Tony to force out Tony’s idol. Sadly things go south for Tasha from then on. She acts a little bit to comfortable around camp for someone who’s on the chopping block. And it doesn’t just takes Tony’s whit to notice that. Not only does Tash tip of Tony but she also alerts Kass to the similarity between Tony and Russel Hantz (There doesn’t go a single season without dropping his name in one way or another, doesn’t it?) causing Kass to doubt the plan.
At tribal Kass and Woo talk the walk by insinuating a blindside but fail to walk the talk and scurry back behind the broad back of Tony. This results in a 4-1-1 sending Tasha Fox packing.
Tony deciding not to play either of his idols was a very risky move to me. If Woo and Kass stuck to the original plan then Tony could have protected himself with the superidol but he would have lost Trish. So either he has balls of steel ( which he has proven he has in the past) or he thought that all four votes were coming his way and he would only have to play his superidol to stay safe. If the three-way split was going to happen then the right move for Tony was to play the normal idol for Trish and use the superidol for himself. That would have dropped the jaws of several people if not all at tribal and this episode would have lived up to it’s maximum potential.
Now only Spencer is left trying to fight himself a way into the final three. A very difficult mission, if not impossible for Spencer. I doubt that there’s anyone stupid enough to go to the end with Spencer at this point, not even Woo. So the only way to get there would be an immunity run, a very steep mountain to climb indeed. What does however speak in favor of Spencer is his edit. He’s been getting a really good edit during the entire season. He even got credited as the sole player responsible for putting the all-women alliance in Tony’s head, even though Tash had her part in that aswell. On the other hand, it would be very typical of the producers to create the impression that Spencer might go to the end to keep it exciting for us. I think Spencer will come close but he won’t reach the final three (or two) and finish 4th.
I guess we’ll see it all unfold while this season is reaching it’s climax. You can find the 'Day After' and Ponderosa vids from Tasha below and I’ll see you next time!
With the exit of Jefra, so too comes to a close the story of the Beauties. Beauty will not be the quality that wins this season of Survivor. But in remembrance of the Beauty tribe, I thought I could dedicate my casestudy this week to the last remaining member: Jefra.
Now you might think: You are going to write an entire blogpost about Jefra? Granted she does come of as a ‘non-entity’ as the title of this blogpost suggest. But I wanted to take a closer look at her journey this season to analyze the moves she made. (if she made any) Because for all we know the editors downplayed her moves in the game to push in her in the part of ‘non-entity’.
In my preview I saw Jefra as your typical eye-candy player who adds little to the season. For the most part she lived up to that part since right from the get go she connected with LJ and Alexis. I guess you can see that as a move, even though it’s the most basic survivor move out there. But the fact is that ever since she made that alliance (or maybe more accurate agreed to that alliance)she didn’t do anything until the tribe swap. She did make a nice little nest for her to settle in, so she didn’t had to make a move. But still, it’s at those times that you have to make preparations for future moves.
Her comfy little alliance of beauties was rudely disturbed when the tribe swap arrived. The beauties drew the short end of the stick as three beauties went to Aparri to almost immediately turn on each other. All the while Jefra remained on Solana but was joined by 4 brawns. Her situation looked pretty grim but luckily she still had LJ with her. LJ connected with Trish and pulled the Brawn alliance apart. Now what was Jefra part in this? Maybe a bit more the you might think at first. The episode suggested that LJ made Trish switch but we also saw that Trish approached Jefra first who reassured Trish that LJ is with her. Now I don’t believe the flip of Trish and Tony is in large part due to Jefra but it is clear that since that episode she got herself a final three alliance with Trish and LJ that probably would have gotten her to the end if Tony didn’t blindside LJ. A bad situation turned perfect were it not she lost her close ally Alexis just before the merge.
At the merge it looked like Jefra and her alliance were going to be picked of one by one, were it not for ChoasKass. Kass flipped and put Jefra’s alliance in the powerposition. Jefra’s part in this was pretty much zero though.
Things looked very good for Jefra and a final three was definitely in the cards. Winning of course is a different matter if she ended up with LJ and Trish next to her. Sadly for Jefra her A-plan to reach the end was shattered to pieces when LJ was blindsided by Tony. With her rock gone, Jefra had nothing to hold on to and seemed a little lost. But she had a chance here to finally play her game and to her credit she did try although it looked very clumsy. At a reward challenge with Spencer, Tash and Jeremiah she promised her loyalty to them in order to vote of Tony. Now her big move didn’t last long as Trish reassured her that the final 5 still stands and that she has Tony under control. Jefra broke the news of her reflip to Jeremiah and not much later signed his exit note.
Now did she make the right decision here? I would say yes but she did it in a very clumsy way. She should have never flipped to Tash, Spencer and Jeremiah in the first place. She never in a million years had a chance to beat Tash, Spencer or Jeremiah in a final three. At least with the other 4 she has a chance to win, al be it very difficult. The only way Jefra might have had a chance to win was to go to the final three with Kass and Woo. Kass is hated by almost everyone and would surely be keen to the idea to a final three with Jefra. And Woo has done nothing this season, except basically being Tony’s little bitch (excuse my phrasing here). So If I were to be Jefra, I would have picked off Tash, Spencer and Jeremiah until one was left, preferably Tash. Then I should have rallied Kass, Trish and Tash (or whoever was left) behind me and voted of Tony.
Now of course with Tony’s superpowered idol that probably wouldn’t have worked but Jefra didn’t know that so that should have still been her plan regardless. After voting out Tony, Woo would have been a free agent for Jefra to recruit in order to blindside Trish in case Tash won immunity. If Tash didn’t win immunity, Jefra should first have targeted Tash and then try and blindside Trish at final four. This would have resulted in a final three of Jefra, Woo and Kass. Granted, a little bit of an anti-climax but I can see Jefra winning in that instance.
This should have been what Jefra should have done but I do realize that this doesn’t really fit Jefra’s character and she doesn’t really have a feel for the strategy part of the game. It’s also what caused her eventual exit because it becomes clear that Trish doesn’t have Tony under control. Scared by an all-women alliance that never was a thing, Tony changes allegiance once again and blindsides Jefra. So instead of being a player that breaks the stereotype of young pretty girls on survivor, she ends up being a footnote in survivor history confirming the stereotype rather then breaking it and in the end still being somewhat of a non-entity this season.
Tony has struck again. What should have been a boring episode, where either Spencer or Tash would have been voted out, turned into once again an episode where Tony pulled out his bag of tricks and forced one of his allies towards the exit. A recurring theme with Tony however, is that even though his moves are very entertaining and great television, they’re not that smart towards winning the game. Same thing happens this week, by saving Spencer and Tash and pushing Jefra in the pit. Is Tony busy writing the narrative of his own downfall? It sure as hell is seeming that way.
After the tribal last week, where Jeremiah was voted out, it seemed like Tash and Spence were up against an impossible task, something the alliance of five don’t hesitate to make clear. Especially Kass is getting more annoying by walking and talking around like she has played some amazing game. The last couple of episode it didn’t bother me that much, since she didn’t got a lot of airtime. Does her increased airtime mean we can expect a new move by ChaosKass? Just look at Jefra. In the first two minutes of the episode, Jefra gets just as much airtime then in a regular episode. That was our first clue that things were going to go south for jefra this week.
Next we have a Survivor classic: the Survivor auction. Here the players are given 500 bucks to bid on various dishes of food and a advantage in the game. And I must say, that food looked really good. It really makes you stand up and go to the kitchen and make something for yourself. I believe the ribs and beer would have been my pick. ^^
Now you might wonder why I wouldn’t go for the advantage. Well, because the importance and value of the advantage is a little bit overrated according to me. In this instance there were 3 people vying for the advantage: Tony, Tash and Spencer. That means you have a 2 out of 3 shot to return empty handed and still starving. By choosing food, you also get an influx of energy which is also some sort of advantage, no? And even if you do get the advantage, that’s still all it is: an advantage. It’s no guarantee, you’ll win immunity. So basically it’s not worth the hassle and the 500 bucks.
Maybe that’s also what the producers thought since this time the advantage was a clue to yet another idol. Tony and Spencer both bid 500 bucks, after Tash backed out and basically became the big loser of the Survivor auction. Props go to Tony here because he doesn’t need to do this with an idol already in his pocket. He’s just so focused on the game and doesn’t want Spence or Tash to win immunity. (which seems a little pointless, now we know how the end episode unfolded) Spencer and Tony had to draw rocks for the advantage and it was like Tony didn’t have enough power with his superpowered idol, because Tony won the advantage and would later find the idol. With two idols in his pocket, Tony will kick himself for years to come, if he still loses this game.
Having two idols in his possession might have given Tony a burst of confidence and a feeling of being indestructible. It might be a factor that plays in to his motivation for his following actions. Tony is paranoid and very hyper. He is seeing threats everywhere and is blinded by some less likely worst-case scenario’s then the more obvious threats. And that’s what Tash and Spencer’s angle is to save Spencer after Tash won her third immunity challenge. Tash spends a lot of time with Trish, Jefra and Kass to make Tony nervous. All the while Spencer’s is trying to further grow the seed of an unlikely all-girl alliance in Tony’s head to keep Tony from seeing the more likely and bigger threat of Spencer reaching the end. The paranoia gets to Tony and he decides to set the wheels in motion to blindside jefra. Tony approaches Spencer and Woo, who’s to Woo’s own words clicking on the same level as Tony 9 out of ten times. :D Isn’t Woo cute in a clueless kind of way?
But why Jefra? Why not vote out Kass or even Trish, who’s a bigger jury threat. I think he chose Jefra because Jefra isn’t in any of Tony’s final three scenario’s. I believe Kass is in a possible final three scenario and so is Trish. This means Jefra is expendable and that’s why he voted her out. Also Jefra doesn’t really add something to the game, whether it being strategy or work at camp. We saw with Morgan, that’s something that irks Tony and influences him in his voting motivation.
At tribal Tony calls Jefra out and pulls out his normal immunity idol out of his bag of tricks and threatens to play it if anyone has an idea to vote for him. Of course Tony doesn’t play it, not that anyone ever expected him to anyway. In the resulting vote, Tony stays true to his plans and blindsides Jefra in 4-2 vote.
Now it seems like every time Tony strikes, we have to ask ourselves the same question: was it a good or bad move? It depends on how grounded Tony’s fear for an all girls alliance was. Now we know pretty much for sure that Tash wasn’t in on an all-girl alliance. She just wanted to make Tony nervous which she did successfully. But what for the case for a Trish, Kass and Jefra alliance? I wouldn’t rule it out completely. I’m sure Trish is very much on guard for Tony’s bag of tricks and might have an alliance with Jefra and Kass as a backup plan if Tony tries something. (which obviously failed if that was the case) Plus, a final three with Trish, Kass and Jefra seems like an easy win for Trish.
But in the end we have to go with what we saw in the episodes. And in the episode, Trish seems very loyal towards Tony. If Trish had another main alliance then Tony, wouldn’t we have seen it by now? Taken that into account I believe that Tony’s fear for an all-girls alliance is not grounded, making this a bad move. Add to this that he probably hasn’t won himself a jurymember with this move. Having betrayed his alliance once again, it remains to be seen if his alliance will keep taking his antics without consequences. I guess we’ll see next week. You can find Jefra’s Day after and Ponderosa vids below and I’ll see you next time.
