The Case for the Winner!

The curtain has fallen on the 28th season of Survivor and we’ve gotten a winner that can rightfully take his place in the hall of fame of Survivor. That’s why I thought there’s no better casestudy to write about then that of the winner.

In a season with a great cast where nearly nobody was a real waste of castspace and everyone tried to play this game hard, Tony made this season. He was the most dominant player who played hard and was prepared to go far. When he encountered an obstacle, he blindsided that obstacle. But most important, he was able to think outside the box. He introduced the never before seen spy shack, the bag of tricks and found three hidden immunity idols. And to top it off, he had a more or less good social game. He played hard but wasn’t cruel in a way Russel Hantz was. This caused the jury to reward him in the end with the title of sole survivor and the million dollar prize. It’s difficult to call this an undeserved win but let’s take a closer look at the winner of Survivor Cagayan: Tony Vlachos!

Tony clearly has a knack for this game and has an amazing read on people, courtesy of his 13-year long career as a cop. But that doesn’t mean he has played a flawless game. He also defined his game by impulsive moves. Tony already admitted that he acted on instinct for most of the time, which lead him to some questionable moves. Whatever Tony winded up doing, it was always spectacular but it wasn’t always the best option. Let’s take a look at Tony’s moves and see where he shined and where there’s still room for improvement.

His first move and in retrospect maybe his best move, was to team up with Trish. As became very clear in Trish her jury speech, Trish was an intricate part of Tony’s game and the reason that Tony was able to get away with all his shenanigans. Trish was 50% of Tony’s social game as Trish was a very well-liked person in the group, despite being one of the least popular players with the audience. Whenever people were ready to give up on Tony for his latest betrayal, it was Trish who put out the fire and assured them she has Tony under control. Of course it would turn out nobody had Tony under control but if it weren’t for Trish, Tony would never have gotten away with what he did.

But in the very beginning Tony and Trish only had only each other since they were on the outs with their tribe. This makes their story even more impressive. By manipulating Sarah and swearing on his badge he pulled in Sarah and Woo and took control of the Brawn tribe. But it wasn’t until the tribe swap that Tony got involved in a first major blindside. Now I don’t want to overstate Tony’s role in the Cliff blindside since I think this was more Trish her move then Tony’s. It was Trish who connected with LJ and Jefra and it was Trish who ultimately convinced Tony to step in to an alliance with them. 

So up to the  merge you might conclude that Tony hadn’t really pulled a big move just yet. He teamed up with Trish, played Sarah and took control of the Brawn tribe. But the Cliff vote was largely due to Trish. Tony also made his first mistake by yelling ‘top five’ loudly and burning his bridge with Sarah. This is proof of Tony’s impulsiveness that hurts his game at times.

Just like at the start of the Brawn tribe, things weren’t looking any better at the start of the merge. Tony’s five were up against the Aparri five with Sarah as the swingvote with whom he burned his bridges. This also puts a dent in the theory that Spencer deserves it more because Spencer had to fight from behind. Tony had to fight from behind and get back in the game just as much.

Despite being in a bad position, they managed to pull in Kass, vote out Sarah and conquer the majority. But just like the Cliff vote, I would give credits to Trish here. It was Trish who saw the crack between Sarah and Kass and acted on it. This proves again how vital Trish was to Tony. You will also notice that one tribal in to the merge, Tony hasn’t really pulled a big move. You could even say that Trish played the better game up and  till then and I would agree with that.

It wasn’t until the LJ vote that Tony really pulled out his bag of tricks. Tony recognized LJ as the strategic threat he is but was looking for an excuse to take him out. When LJ was prepared to vote out Woo, Tony found his excuse and targeted LJ. He pulled in Woo, Spencer, Jeremiah and Tash and blindsided LJ out of the game. He also approached Trish but she was reluctant to the idea, mainly because LJ was a big part of Trish her strategy. Despite that, he continued with his plan anyway, making this 100% his move. One of the first rules of Survivor is get them before they get you and he executed that flawlessly here. He also kind of bound Trish to him as he blew Trish her other final three deal with Jefra and LJ to smithereens.

Tony seemed to have smooth sailing ahead from then on, were it not for the never existing women alliance. Paranoid as Tony is, he sees threats everywhere. That’s why it wasn’t that hard of a sell for Spencer and Tash to convince Tony of a women alliance. In yet another rather impulsive move he blindsided Jefra and kept Trish once again out of the loop. Like the LJ vote this is just as much 100% his move.But unlike the LJ vote, this vote felt kind of unnecessary. The women alliance never was a thing, he made even more enemies and gained almost nothing. If he gained anything, it was the unquestionable crown as kingpin of the game. After being kept in the dark two times now, Trish moved to the background of the game, putting Tony forward as the biggest player in the game and the super favorite to win it.

Trish her move to the background of the game was somewhat of a prelude to her eventual exit. After Woo was already tempted to vote out Trish to secure his spot at the end, Tony finally recognized Trish as the jurythreat she is. Trish was the only other player with a strong game then Tony and she didn’t even play that much of a lesser game then Tony. Tony saw that, forcing her to take a spot on the jurybench. But here as well, Tony made an error. Voting for Trish struck me as somewhat of a panic move because he lost control of the group. But he could have gotten rid of Trish without getting his hands bloody. In that regard, his game could definitely improve.

Tony made enemies along the way but managed to sit next to a goat which made it impossible for the jury to ignore his game. He played an aggressive game which does remind of Russel Hantz but he differs in one core aspect of Russel Hantz: social game. Despite fooling and manipulating, he doesn’t rub it in their faces and isn’t cruel for no apparent reason. So you could see Tony as a Russel Hantz with a social game, which is something that sounds very promising if he inevitably returns to play again. 

If Tony does ever want to play again, he needs to become less hyper and mature his game. If he can do that he can truly become one of the best. He should maybe also drop the swearing on the heads of his family. An all-star will never fall for that and it’s also kind of distasteful to me. In all honesty I can’t wait to see Tony play again. I’m really curious how he would fare against all-stars. In the end Tony outwitted, outlasted and mostly outplayed the others, so what more can you ask of a great Survivor winner?

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That pretty much closes the book on this season for me. I want to thank everyone who read, liked and shared throughout the season. Just like Survivor I’m taking a break until Survivor returns and I hope you will return with me. This doesn’t mean I’ll stop writing however. I’m working on another blog that I’ll start up in July. So stay tuned and I’ll see you guy’s next time!

S28E14: Finale & Reunion!

After 39 days, 13 episodes, we finally have our winner of Survivor Cagayan. And with Tony we truly have a 100% deserving winner the likes of we don’t see that often. Usually there’s always a valid argument why you can say the best player didn’t win. But not this season. Tony played the hardest, the smartest and the most strategic and he managed to be even as well-liked as you can be, playing the game like Tony did.

In this final episode, we got 3 more tribals and the expected final 2. We got a lot of drama with the ‘loved-ones visit’ and the questions from the jury. But we also got 2 entertaining final tribal councils where Spencer’s exit wasn’t that absolute as you would expect. And the fact that Woo had all the power in his hands in the end was as much entertaining as it was ironic. Let’s break it down.

Right from the get-go Survivor blindsides us by changing up the format of the finale. Two seasons ago they also decided to change up the format of the final. They put the pre-jury boots in the audience, didn’t even let everyone in the jury speak at the reunion and they also gave airtime to people who had nothing to do with the season and didn’t add anything to the finale. Like many of you would agree this was a change for the worse. Apparently Survivor agreed as they changed it up again. Not only did they reinstate the entire cast on the center stage, they also interrupted the final episode a couple of times by giving a behind the scenes look at the live reunion show. I really enjoyed this and the fact that it interrupted the final episode didn’t bother me. I also felt this was an added value to the show. So congratz to CBS and Survivor, as far as I’m concerned these are changes for the good.

After decompressing and a good night sleep after yet another blindside, the spirits of the remaining four survivors are lifted when a boat arrives full of loved ones. Kass her husband, Tony’s friend, Spencer’s sister and Woo’s cousin join the final four in a small feast. After the festivities are done, the final four and their loved ones head over for an immunity challenge where a fear of height is not advisable. Sadly for Kass, she did not seem to be completely at ease at top of that unstable looking pole. This caused Kass to end up in a unwinnable position. But thanks to the support of her husband and her calm but efficient puzzling skills, she made a tremendous comeback and won immunity. Kudos to Kass!

Of course, this spells appending doom for Spencer. He’s still the biggest threat out there and now he has nothing to protect him. This doesn’t mean that he has no plan however. Spencer attentively spotted that Jeff Probst didn’t say that the previous immunity challenge was their chance to plead their case to the jury. This means that we’re heading to a final 2. With this in mind Spencer approaches Tony with his theory and states that if he votes Spencer out now and Tony doesn’t win immunity next challenge, Tony’s out. A valid statement and Spencer’s only argument to possibly save him. He articulates his argument very well and this shows once again that Spencer has a mind to play this game.

But what about Tony? Spencer’s argument is a legitimate reason for Tony to worry. So did he make the wrong decision to vote out Spencer anyways? I would say not really. It is true that with Spencer gone and if Tony doesn’t win immunity the chances are very high that Tony goes next. However, if he keeps Spencer, there’s also a very high chance that Spencer wins the next challenge and with it, also wins this season. So there’s a high risk either way for Tony and he has to decide with risk is bigger. In the end Tony figured by keeping Woo, he at least has a bigger chance of winning in the final tribal instead of going up against Spencer. This means the end for Spencer’s journey and he goes out fourth (as I predicted ^^) in a 3-1 vote.

The final three doesn’t get long to enjoy the achievement of reaching the final three. The next morning they’re presented with an immense maze as the finale immunity challenge. In a showdown between Kass and Woo, where literally a half of a second separates the two, Woo comes on top and wins immunity and his spot in the final 2. This means that Woo decides who sits next to him and who becomes the final jurymember. Pretty ironic, if you consider Woo was the dimwitted player that went through the motions the entire season, following the commands of his general Tony.

Now you might think the choice is simple for Woo, take Kass to the end and win the game. But nothing is simple in Woo-land. The choice between Kass and Tony is a huge morale dilemma for Woo. Does he stay loyal to Tony who he relied on so heavily the entire season? Or does he make the decision that makes sense? Now to understand Woo’s choice, you have to take a good look at his character. He comes from a culture where respect and honor is everything. Also, Woo doesn’t have that cutthroat mentality and just is a nice guy. With just a day earlier, saying that taking Tony would be the stupidest move ever, Woo chooses the honorable way and keeps Tony and sends Kass to the jury. Is it a smart move? Of course not but it is a move that fits his character. You can say a lot about Woo, but he is at least consistent in what he does and I guess I can respect that, even though this decision cost him a million dollars as the reunion show would prove.

With Woo and Tony in the final 2, you would think done deal right and Tony wins? I kind of had my doubts after the questions of the jury. Tony was grilled by the jury and he took a defensive stance which rarely is a good way to go. Sarah and Morgan were a question mark to me and so was Jefra who went hard on Tony. Jeremiah also seemed to be insulted by Tony’s gameplay. LJ seemed dissatisfied by Tony’s answer to his question. Trish had a very emotional reaction which also made me doubt her vote. The only vote I was sure of was Spencer, who made a plea to the jury to vote for Tony. A plea that fell on deaf ears with Tasha because she gave her vote to Woo which struck me as odd. In the end the votes weren’t that close at all. Tony slammed Woo with an 8-1 vote and became the very much satisfying and deserving winner of Survivor Cagayan.

In the reunion show we didn’t hear much interesting. Apparently Sarah and Tony aren’t talking because of a twitter dispute. (who cares right?) We did however learn that the next season will be Blood vs. Water 2. And if the rumors are right, the second Blood vs. Water season will be played with all new players. Now I never was a huge fan of the first Blood vs. Water because I felt it took away the feeling that literally anybody could play and win this game. With Blood vs. Water it seemed like you had to be connected with an all-star to have a shot at playing now. I think I would take more enjoyment if it were all new players. Definitely if the cast is as good as this season.

Now the season of Survivor might have ended but I’m not taking a summer break just yet. There’s still a casestudy to be made, which will center around the winner, Tony Vlachos. I also want to share some plans for a blog project that I will be doing in the summer break. So more news to come, stay tuned.

No 'Day after' vids but you can find the teaser for next season and ponderosa vid down below and I will see you next time!